Bcl-xL as a poor prognostic biomarker and predictor of response to adjuvant chemotherapy specifically in BRAF-mutant stage II and III colon cancer

BackgroundBRAF mutation occurs in 8-15% of colon cancers (CC), and is associated with poor prognosis in metastatic disease. Compared to wild-type BRAF (BRAFWT) disease, stage II/III CC patients with BRAF mutant (BRAFMT) tumors have shorter overall survival after relapse; however, time-to-relapse is not significantly different. The aim of this investigation was to identify, and validate, novel predictors of relapse of stage II/III BRAFMT CC.Patients and methodsWe used gene expression data from a cohort of 460 patients (GSE39582) to perform a supervised classification analysis based on risk-of-relapse within BRAFMT stage II/III CC, to identify transcriptomic biomarkers associated with prognosis within this genotype. These findings were validated using immunohistochemistry in an independent population-based cohort of Stage II/III CC (n=691), applying Cox proportional hazards analysis to determine associations with survival.ResultsHigh gene expression levels of Bcl-xL, a key regulator of apoptosis, were associated with increased risk of relapse, specifically in BRAFMT tumors (HR=8.3, 95% CI 1.7-41.7), but not KRASMT/BRAFWT or KRASWT/BRAFWT tumors. High Bcl-xL protein expression in BRAFMT, untreated, stage II/III CC was confirmed to be associated with an increased risk of death in an independent cohort (HR=12.13, 95% CI 2.49-59.13). Additionally, BRAFMT tumors with high levels of Bcl-xL protein expression appeared to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (P for interaction =0.006), indicating the potential predictive value of Bcl-xL expression in this setting.ConclusionsThese findings provide evidence that Bcl-xL gene and/or protein expression identifies a poor prognostic subgroup of BRAFMT stage II/III CC patients, who may benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.Key MessageUsing a combination of computational biology discovery and immunohistochemistry validation in independent patient cohorts, we show that high expression of the apoptosis regulator Bcl-xL is associated with disease relapse specifically within BRAF mutant stage II/III colon cancer.This data could enable tailored disease management to reduce relapse rates in the most aggressive subtype.