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Geodemography, environment and societal characteristics drive the global diversity of emerging, zoonotic and human pathogens
- Source :
- Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2021.
-
Abstract
- Background: Understanding human disease, zoonoses, and emergence is a global priority. Multifactorial aetiologies have been proposed, but mechanistic analyses to quantify the underlying factors are limited. A deep understanding of pathogen ecology and the complex inherent relationships at the agent-environment interface are essential to inform disease control and mitigation, and to predict the next zoonotic pandemic. Methods: We present an analysis of several social and environmental factors associated with human disease, zoonoses, and disease emergence after controlling for research effort. In contrast to previous studies that used emerging infectious disease events, we used human, zoonotic and emerging pathogen diversity. Predictor-response associations were captured by generalised additive models. Research effort was controlled using gross domestic research expenditure and development at the country level. In addition, we used national level data to aid in policy development to inform control and mitigation. Findings: We show that human population density, land area, temperature, and the human development index at the country level are associated with human, emerging and zoonotic pathogen diversity. Multiple models demonstrating society-agent-environment interactions and global maps showing predicted pathogen diversity are presented. Interpretation: Social, environmental, and geographical factors predict global pathogen diversity. Further, our analyses demonstrate that climate change, such as temperature and rainfall, has the potential to influence pathogen diversity.
- Subjects :
- 040301 veterinary sciences
media_common.quotation_subject
Ecology (disciplines)
Human pathogen
emerging diseases
Communicable Diseases, Emerging
0403 veterinary science
03 medical and health sciences
Zoonoses
Pandemic
Animals
Humans
Human Development Index
Pandemics
Weather
030304 developmental biology
media_common
Population Density
0303 health sciences
General Veterinary
General Immunology and Microbiology
Geography
business.industry
Geodemography
Environmental resource management
geodemography
COVID-19
04 agricultural and veterinary sciences
General Medicine
Original Articles
Global diversity
Coronavirus
Scale (social sciences)
pathogen diversity
social impact
Original Article
zoonotic diseases
business
environment
Diversity (politics)
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 18651682 and 18651674
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....e9dfd3f367d537a3bf4502b53be1b8b7