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Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance
- Source :
- Frontiers in Psychology, Vol 8 (2017), Frontiers in Psychology, Frontiers in Psychology. Frontiers Media S.A.
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Frontiers Media S.A., 2017.
-
Abstract
- Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning.
- Subjects :
- statistical relevance
lcsh:BF1-990
ComputingMilieux_LEGALASPECTSOFCOMPUTING
050905 science studies
050105 experimental psychology
prior credibility
Credibility
Psychology
0501 psychology and cognitive sciences
Generalizability theory
General Psychology
Original Research
Generality
05 social sciences
Philosophy of psychology
Framing effect
Causality
Abductive reasoning
lcsh:Psychology
causal framing
0509 other social sciences
Explanatory power
explanation
Social psychology
Cognitive psychology
generality
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16641078
- Volume :
- 8
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Frontiers in Psychology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....e9a5fb21439c64f99914cc73ec664a15