Seasonal renewal time variability in the Curonian Lagoon caused by atmospheric and hydrographical forcing

The aim of this study was to investigate the variability of the water exchanges in the Curonian Lagoon based on the hydraulic regime and the atmospheric forcings. A finite element hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Curonian Lagoon to simulate the circulation patterns for ten years. With the help of a transport-diffusion model the salinity distribution and the renewal times of the Curonian Lagoon have been investigated when forced by river runoff, wind and Baltic Sea level fluctuations. The hydrodynamic model has been validated using in situ salinity measurements. Model results show that the variability depends mainly on seasonal changes in hydrographic forcing and on the dominant wind regimes that prevail over the Curonian Lagoon. Exchanges between the southern and the northern part of the lagoon are mostly depended on the wind forcing and are much less influenced by the river discharge. However, when looking at the water renewal time, the most important factor is the river discharge into the lagoon. Other physical forcings are only marginally determining the renewal time, and not even ice cover is able to influence it. Even if ice cover is strongly inhibiting the exchanges between southern and northern lagoon, it is basically not able to change the absolute value of the renewal times.