A Genotype Signature for Predicting Pathologic Complete Response in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Purpose To construct and validate a predicting genotype signature for pathologic complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer (PGS-LARC) after neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Methods and Materials Whole exome sequencing was performed in 15 LARC tissues. Mutation sites were selected according to the whole exome sequencing data and literature. Target sequencing was performed in a training cohort (n = 202) to build the PGS-LARC model using regression analysis, and internal (n = 76) and external validation cohorts (n = 69) were used for validating the results. Predictive performance of the PGS-LARC model was compared with clinical factors and between subgroups. The PGS-LARC model comprised 15 genes. Results The area under the curve (AUC) of the PGS model in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts was 0.776 (0.697-0.849), 0.760 (0.644-0.867), and 0.812 (0.690-0.915), respectively, and demonstrated higher AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity than cT stage, cN stage, carcinoembryonic antigen level, and CA19-9 level for pCR prediction. The predictive performance of the model was superior to clinical factors in all subgroups. For patients with clinical complete response (cCR), the positive prediction value was 94.7%. Conclusions The PGS-LARC is a reliable predictive tool for pCR in patients with LARC and might be helpful to enable nonoperative management strategy in those patients who refuse surgery. It has the potential to guide treatment decisions for patients with different probability of tumor regression after neoadjuvant therapy, especially when combining cCR criteria and PGS-LARC.