Some suggestions for measuring predictive performance

The performance of a prediction or measurement method is often evaluated by computing the correlation coefficient and/or the regression of predictions on true (reference) values. These provide, however, only a poor description of predictive performance. The mean squared prediction error (precision) and the mean prediction error (bias) provide better descriptions of predictive performance. These quantities are easily computed, and can be used to compare prediction methods to absolute standards or to one another. The measures, however, are unreliable when the reference method is imprecise. The use of these measures is discussed and illustrated.