Drivers to dust emissions over dust belt from 1980 to 2018 and their variation in two global warming phases

Dust storms are one of the major disasters in arid and semi-arid regions. Understanding the impact factors is crucial for early warning and disaster mitigation. Many factors have been affecting the spatiotemporal patterns of dust storms. However, the relative importance of those factors to dust emissions in recent 40 years over the whole dust belt has not been well documented. This study explored the relative importance of those factors to the interannual variation in dust emissions over the whole dust belt. The difference in the primary contributors over two global warming phases was compared to investigate the association of dust emission trend with global warming. The results indicated that the wind regimes, such as the nocturnal low-level jet, were key factors to the wintertime dust emissions over the Sahel. The springtime dust storms related to cold air and cyclones primarily occurred in the southern coast of the Mediterranean and northwestern China. The cold high and heat low were typical mechanisms for the summertime dust emissions, which frequently formed in western North Africa, the Middle East, and northwestern Indian subcontinent. Whereas the land cover and drought conditions play significant roles in the relatively wetter regions, i.e., the southern coast of the Mediterranean, the Ustyurt Plateau, the northwest coast of Indian Ocean, the Thar desert and the Taklimakan desert. The wintertime global warming coincided well with the decreasing trend of dust emissions over the dust sources inland with a more significant effect seen in Asia. The positive anomalies of summertime dust emissions were primarily found over the dust sources in the low-lying coastal areas on the foot of high mountains. Understanding the relative importance of those drivers to dust emission trends and their variation under different warming periods can improve the prediction of dust storm evolutions and mitigate their impacts under future climate change.