Back to Search Start Over

A Stochastic Forecast Model for Japan's Population

Authors :
Wade Donald Pfau
Yoichi Okita
Giang Thanh Long
Source :
Japanese Economy. 38:19-44
Publication Year :
2011
Publisher :
Informa UK Limited, 2011.

Abstract

Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than that implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.

Details

ISSN :
1097203X
Volume :
38
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Japanese Economy
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....e32c4584a54513b8b45783c269d73dce