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READING KEYNES’S POLICY PAPERS THROUGH THE PRISM OF HIS TREATISE ON PROBABILITY: INFORMATION, EXPECTATIONS, AND REVISION OF PROBABILITIES IN ECONOMIC POLICY
- Source :
- Journal of the History of Economic Thought
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2021.
-
Abstract
- When scholars investigate the legacy of John Maynard Keynes’s Treatise on Probability (1921) for the development of Keynes’s thinking, the attention usually focuses on the connections among Keynes’s probability theory, his conception of decision-making under uncertainty, and the theory of the functioning of the macroeconomic system that derives from it—through the marginal efficiency of capital, the preference for liquidity, and the self-referential functioning of financial markets. By contrast, this paper aims to investigate the connections between Keynes’s probability theory, on the one hand, and his economic policy recommendations, on the other. It concentrates on the policy recommendations defended by Keynes during the Great Depression but also after the General Theory. Keynes’s economic policy can be understood as a framework for decision-making in situations of uncertainty: fiscal policy aims to induce private agents to change their “rational” probability statements, while monetary policy aims to allow more weight to these statements.
- Subjects :
- Economic policy
General Arts and Humanities
media_common.quotation_subject
Decision Making
Monetary policy
Financial market
Probability Theory
[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
Marginal efficiency of capital
Fiscal policy
Market liquidity
History and Philosophy of Science
Reading (process)
Great Depression
Economics
Economic Policy
Keynes
Financial Markets
General Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Preference (economics)
media_common
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14699656 and 10538372
- Volume :
- 43
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of the History of Economic Thought
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....e2d930bbfc83a5e005934db6f3455f86