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Impact of prophylactic vaccination strategies on Ebola virus transmission: A modeling analysis
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 4, p e0230406 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Ebola epidemics constitute serious public health emergencies. Multiple vaccines are under development to prevent these epidemics and avoid the associated morbidity and mortality. Assessing the potential impact of these vaccines on morbidity and mortality of Ebola is essential for devising prevention strategies. A mean-field compartmental stochastic model was developed for this purpose and validated by simulating the 2014 Sierra Leone epidemic. We assessed the impacts of prophylactic vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) both alone and in combination with the vaccination of the general population (entire susceptible population other than HCW). The model simulated 8,706 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 478-21,942) cases and 3,575 (95%CI: 179-9,031) deaths in Sierra Leone, in line with WHO-reported statistics for the 2014 epidemic (8,704 cases and 3,587 deaths). Relative to this base case, the model then estimated that prophylactic vaccination of only 10% of HCW will avert 12% (95% CI: 6%-14%) of overall cases and deaths, while vaccination of 30% of HCW will avert 34% of overall cases (95% CI: 30%-64%) and deaths (95% CI: 30%-65%). Prophylactic vaccination of 1% and 5% of the general population in addition to vaccinating 30% of HCW was estimated to result in reduction in cases by 44% (95% CI: 39%-61%) and 72% (95% CI: 68%-84%) respectively, and deaths by 45% (95% CI: 40%-61%) and 74% (95% CI: 70%-85%) respectively. Prophylactic vaccination of even small proportions of HCW is estimated to significantly reduce incidence of Ebola and associated mortality. The effect is greatly enhanced by the additional vaccination even of small percentages of the general population. These findings could be used to inform the planning of prevention strategies.
- Subjects :
- RNA viruses
Pediatrics
Viral Diseases
Spatial Epidemiology
Epidemiology
medicine.disease_cause
Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
Geographical locations
Disease Outbreaks
0302 clinical medicine
Medicine and Health Sciences
Public and Occupational Health
030212 general & internal medicine
education.field_of_study
Vaccines
Multidisciplinary
Incidence (epidemiology)
Incidence
Vaccination
Ebolavirus
Vaccination and Immunization
Infectious Diseases
Medical Microbiology
Filoviruses
Viral Pathogens
Viruses
Medicine
Pathogens
Ebola Virus
Research Article
Neglected Tropical Diseases
medicine.medical_specialty
Infectious Disease Control
Science
Health Personnel
030231 tropical medicine
Population
Immunology
Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
Microbiology
Sierra leone
Sierra Leone
03 medical and health sciences
medicine
Humans
Computer Simulation
Mortality
education
Microbial Pathogens
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers
Ebola virus
business.industry
Prophylaxis
Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses
Organisms
Biology and Life Sciences
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola
Tropical Diseases
Confidence interval
Africa
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis
Preventive Medicine
People and places
business
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 15
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....e271f5bbc8dc0fc14571c79e25e8393e