Contemporary crustal extension in the Umbria-Marche Apennines from regional CGPS networks and comparison between geodetic and seismic deformation

Here we report the results of the analysis of a GPS velocity field in the Umbria–Marche Apennines (central Italy) obtained from the integration of diverse geodetic networks. The velocity field obtained shows a high degree of consistency both spatially and in terms of comparison with independent information, despite the limited time span of some GPS stations. Starting from the velocity field we derive a continuous strain rate field applying a spline interpolation technique which provide a smooth estimate of the deformation field. The main feature of the resulting strain rate field is a continuous high (> 50 nanostrain/year) strain rate belt coincident with the area of largest historical and instrumental seismic release. The model directions of the principal axes agree with geological and seismological information indicating NE–SW extension. We transform the strain rate field into geodetic moment rate using the Kostrov formula to evaluate the potential seismic activity of the region and compare it with actual seismic release in the last 720 years from Mw > 5.5 earthquakes. This comparison highlights a large possible deficit in the seismic release with respect to the overall potential seismic activity, particularly concentrated in the northern part of the study area. This discrepancy can be resolved with either a large amount of seismicity to be released in the near future or significant aseismic slip and deformation.