Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.
Our plot monitoring networks havebeen supported by multiple grants from a large number of funding bodies: European Research Council; Natural Environment Research Council; European Union’s Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh Framework Programme; Royal Society, Leverhulme Trust; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; David and Lucile Packard Foundation; State of São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); National Council for Science and Technology Development of Brazil (CNPq); Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Conservation International; Missouri Botanical Garden; Smithsonian Institution; Wildlife Conservation Society; National Geographic Society; Centre for International Forestry; and Gabon’s National Park Agency.