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The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection?
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 1, p e0262473 (2022), Scopus, Repositório Institucional da UNESP, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), instacron:UNESP, PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2022
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2022.
-
Abstract
- Made available in DSpace on 2022-04-28T19:49:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2022-01-01 Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in the Brazilian Cerrado? b) how do different regions of the tropical savanna biome present distinct patterns for total dengue cases and vegetation loss? c) what is the projection of a future scenario of deforestation and an increased number of dengue cases in 2030? Thus, this study aimed to assess the relationship between loss of native vegetation in the Cerrado and dengue infection. In this paper, we quantify the entire deforested area and dengue infection cases from 2001 to 2019. For data analyses, we used Poisson generalized linear model, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, non-parametric statistics, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict loss of vegetation and fever dengue cases for the next decade. Cluster analysis revealed the formation of four clusters among the states. Our results showed significant increases in loss of native vegetation in all states, with the exception of Piauí. As for dengue cases, there were increases in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso. Based on projections for 2030, Minas Gerais will register about 4,000 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, São Paulo 750 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and Mato Grosso 500 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants. To reduce these projections, Brazil will need to control deforestation and implement public health, environmental and social policies, requiring a joint effort from all spheres of society. Graduate Program in Agronomy–Cropping Systems São Paulo State University (Unesp), SP Graduate Program in Geography São Paulo State University (Unesp) School of Technology and Sciences, SP Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Chapadão do Sul, MS Federal University of Acre (UFAC) Graduate Program in Agronomy State University of Londrina (Uel), PR Graduate Program in Sciences—Nuclear Energy in Agriculture Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura São Paulo University São Paulo State University (Unesp) Engineering School, SP Graduate Program in Geography Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Três Lagoas, MS Graduate Program in Agronomy–Cropping Systems São Paulo State University (Unesp), SP Graduate Program in Geography São Paulo State University (Unesp) School of Technology and Sciences, SP São Paulo State University (Unesp) Engineering School, SP CNPq: 303767/2020-0
- Subjects :
- Environmental Impacts
Viral Diseases
Conservation of Natural Resources
Epidemiology
Science
Plant Science
Environment
Research and Analysis Methods
Ecosystems
Geographical locations
Dengue Fever
Dengue
Clustering Algorithms
Medical Conditions
Medicine and Health Sciences
Humans
Public and Occupational Health
Deforestation
Plant Communities
Ecosystem
Multidisciplinary
Ecology
Plant Ecology
Applied Mathematics
Simulation and Modeling
Incidence
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Biology and Life Sciences
South America
Dengue Virus
Tropical Diseases
Terrestrial Environments
Infectious Diseases
Grasslands
Physical Sciences
Medicine
People and places
Brazil
Mathematics
Algorithms
Research Article
Neglected Tropical Diseases
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 17
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....de0037623367168524187e5f7181bdc4