Basal and stimulation day 5 anti-Müllerian hormone serum concentrations as predictors of ovarian response and pregnancy in assisted reproductive technology cycles stimulated with gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist–gonadotropin treatment

Background Anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) has been recently proposed as a marker for ovarian ageing and poor ovarian response to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation in assisted reproduction cycles. The present study was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of baseline cycle day 3 AMH levels and AMH serum concentrations obtained on the fifth day of gonadotropin therapy in predicting ovarian response and pregnancy in women undergoing ovarian stimulation with FSH under pituitary desensitization for assisted reproduction. Methods A total of 80 women undergoing their first cycle of IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment were studied. Twenty consecutive cycles which were cancelled because of a poor follicular response were initially selected. As a control group, 60 women were randomly selected from our assisted reproduction programme matching by race, age, body mass index, basal FSH and indication for IVF/ICSI to those in the cancelled group. For each cancelled patient, three IVF/ICSI women who met the matching criteria were included. Results Basal and day 5 AMH serum concentrations were significantly lower in the cancelled than in the control group. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the capacity of day 5 AMH in predicting the likelihood of cancellation in an assisted reproduction treatment programme was significantly higher than that for basal AMH measurement. However, the predictive capacity of day 5 AMH was not better than that provided by day 5 estradiol. In addition, neither basal nor day 5 AMH or estradiol measurements were useful in the prediction of pregnancy after assisted reproductive treatment. Conclusions AMH concentrations obtained early in the follicular phase during ovarian stimulation under pituitary suppression for assisted reproduction are better predictors of ovarian response than basal AMH measurements. However, AMH is not useful in the prediction of pregnancy. Definite clinical applicability of AMH determination as a marker of IVF outcome remains to be established.