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Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles
- Source :
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2015, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 8, Pp 1711-1720 (2015)
- Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100 and 1000 year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40–60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows to obtain storm surge level maps that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.
- Subjects :
- Meteorology
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Storm surge
Hazard analysis
01 natural sciences
lcsh:TD1-1066
010305 fluids & plasmas
[SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]
0103 physical sciences
[SDU.OTHER] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Other
14. Life underwater
lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Surge
lcsh:Environmental sciences
ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
lcsh:GE1-350
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere
Atlantic hurricane
Momentum (technical analysis)
[SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere
lcsh:QE1-996.5
lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation
Probabilistic logic
Hazard
lcsh:Geology
Current (stream)
lcsh:G
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]
13. Climate action
Climatology
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
[SDU.OTHER]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Other
Geology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16849981 and 15618633
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union, 2015, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 8, Pp 1711-1720 (2015)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....dbb4d34b04395f5deb25229ec3441878