The cost of a carrier-borne epidemic

In this paper, the cost of the carrier-borne epidemic is considered. The definition of duration, as used by Weiss (1965) and subsequent authors, is generalised and the probability distribution for the number of located carriers is obtained. One component of cost, namely the area generated by the trajectory of carriers, is examined and its probability density function derived. The expected area generated is then shown to be proportional to the expected number of carriers located during the epidemic, a result which has an analogue in the general stochastic epidemic.