National Cardiovascular Data Registry-Acute Kidney Injury (NCDR) vs. Mehran risk models for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy and need for dialysis after coronary angiography in a German patient cohort

Background Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a major adverse event in patients undergoing coronary angiography. The Mehran risk model is the gold-standard for CIN risk prediction. However, its performance in comparison to more contemporary National Cardiovascular Data Registry-Acute Kidney Injury (NCDR-AKI) risk models remains unknown. We aimed to compare both in this study. Methods and results Predictions of Mehran and NCDR-AKI risk models and clinical events of CIN and need for dialysis were assessed in a total of 2067 patients undergoing coronary angiography with or without percutaneous coronary intervention. Risk models were compared regarding discrimination (receiver operating characteristic analysis), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and calibration (graphical and statistical analysis). The NCDR risk model showed superior risk discrimination for predicting CIN (NCDR c-index 0.75, 95% CI 0.72–0.78; vs. Mehran c-index 0.69, 95% CI 0.66–0.72, p NCDRvsMehran Conclusion In German patients undergoing coronary angiography, the modern NCDR risk model for predicting contrast-induced nephropathy showed superior discrimination compared to the Mehran model while showing less accurate calibration. Results for the outcome ‘need for dialysis’ were equivocal. Graphic abstract