Long-term follow-up of cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B virus patients without antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND China has a high prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), but most chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients do not receive standardized antiviral therapy. There are few relevant reports addressing the outcomes of the large number of CHB patients who do not receive antiviral therapy. AIM To observe the outcomes of long-term follow-up of patients with CHB without antiviral treatment. METHODS This study included 362 patients with CHB and 96 with hepatitis B cirrhosis without antiviral treatment and with only liver protection and anti-inflammatory treatment from 1993 to 1998. The median follow-up times were 10 and 7 years, respectively. A total of 203 CHB and 129 hepatitis B cirrhosis patients receiving antiviral therapy were selected as the control groups. The median follow-up times were 8 and 7 years, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the Cox regression model was used to analyze the risk factors for HCC. RESULTS Among the patients in the non-antiviral group, 16.9% had spontaneous decreases in HBV DNA to undetectable levels, and 32.8% showed hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion. In the antiviral group, 87.2% of patients had undetectable HBV DNA, and 52% showed HBeAg seroconversion. Among CHB and hepatitis B cirrhosis patients, the cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 14.9% and 53.1%, respectively, in the non-antiviral group and were 10.7% and 31.9%, respectively, in the antiviral group. There was no difference between the two groups regarding the CHB patients (P = 0.842), but there was a difference between the groups regarding the hepatitis B cirrhosis patients (P = 0.026). The cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 1.6% and 22.3% (P = 0.022) in the groups with and without spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion, respectively. The incidence rates of HCC among patients with and without spontaneous declines in HBV DNA to undetectable levels were 1.6% and 19.1%, respectively (P = 0.051). There was no difference in the cumulative incidence of HCC between the two groups regarding the patients with drug-resistant CHB (P = 0.119), but there was a significant difference between the two groups regarding the patients with cirrhosis (P = 0.004). The Cox regression model was used for regression of the corrected REACH-B score, which showed that alanine aminotransferase > 400 U/L, history of diabetes, and family history of liver cancer were risk factors for HCC among men aged > 40 years (P < 0.05). Multifactorial analysis showed that a family history of HCC among men was a risk factor for HCC. CONCLUSION Antiviral therapy and non-antiviral therapy with liver protection and anti-inflammatory therapy can reduce the risk of HCC. Antiviral therapy may mask the spontaneous serological response of some patients during CHB. Therefore, the effect of early antiviral therapy on reducing the incidence of HCC cannot be overestimated.