Climate change and its role in forecasting energy demand in buildings: A case study of Douala City, Cameroon

The foremost role of a building is to assure the comfort of its occupants. The thermal comfort of a building depends on the outdoor climate and requires a demand in energy for heating and cooling. In this paper, demand of energy (heating/cooling) in the buildings is discussed in Douala, Cameroon. Daily data of the last 40 years coming from five weather stations of Cameroon have been studied. Some forecasts have been carried out with 14 GCM models, associated to three future climate scenarios B1, A2, and A1B. However, only INCM3 of General Circulation Model (GCM) and A2 scenario was used. Energy demand in buildings is valued by HDD (heating degree day) and CDD (cooling degree day) indices. Obtained results show that the temperature evolves more quickly in dry season than in rainy season in Douala. Climate rise indicates an increasing demand of energy in the buildings for cooling. Global Douala heating shows a definite effect on outdoor comfort. From 2045 to 2075, the demand of energy for cooling will be superior to 50%. The total demand in energy for heating in the buildings is estimated to be 67.882 kcal from 1970 to 2000 and will be around 67.774 kcal from 2013 to 2043.