Outcome variables in the evaluation of alcoholics' treatment: lessons from the Italian Assessment of Alcoholism Treatment (ASSALT) Project

The observational evaluation of alcoholics' treatments requires a combined analysis of alco- holic behaviour during treatment and of adherence to therapeutic programmes. The application of survival analysis techniques in this setting has been explored in this study. Two hundred and seventy alcoholics admitted to 15 Italian treatment units in a 1-year period were followed-up for 2 years, recording date and length of every recurrence episode and of definitive or transitory interruption of the planned treatment. An extensive use of several survival analysis techniques was made. The length of time between the start of the treatment and the first episode of relapse did not give a reliable measure of frequency of failures. Conversely, the length of time between the start of treatment and withdrawal appeared to be unbiased. The cumulative proportions of treatment-compliant patients (and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals) were 71% (66-76%), 63% (57-69%) and 53% (47-60%) after 6 months, 1 year and 2 years respectively from the start of treatment. Cumulative abstinence duration before withdrawal was significantly and positively associated with the risk of first, of definitive, and of every episode of treatment interruption. This first application of survival analysis techniques to the combined study of alcoholic behaviour and of adherence to treatment can improve our knowledge of treatment evaluation. Our results suggest that com- pliance to treatment is an objective and versatile outcome measure. Long-term follow-up studies aimed to elucidate the determinants of withdrawal should be performed.