Predictors of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma survivors after intensity-modulated radiotherapy

Background The aim of the study is to identify clinical and dosimetric factors that could predict the risk of hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients following intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods A total of 404 non-metastatic NPC patients were included in our study. All patients were treated with IMRT. The thyroid function were performed for all patients before and after radiation at regular intervals. The time onset for developing hypothyroidism was defined as the time interval between the completion of RT and the first recorded abnormal thyroid hormone test. The cumulative incidence rates of hypothyroidism were estimated using Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to detect the most promising factors that were associated with hypothyroidism. Results Median follow up was 60.6 months. The 3-, 5- and 7- year cumulative incidence rate of hypothyroidism was 39.4%, 49.1% and 54.7%, respectively. The median time to primary hypothyroidism and central hypothyroidism were 15.4 months (range 2.9–83.8 months) and 29.9 months (range 19.8–93.6 months), respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that younger age, female gender and small thyroid volume were the most important factors in predicting the risk of hypothyroidism. Dtmean (mean dose of thyroid), V30-V50 (percentage of thyroid volume receiving a certain dose level) and VS45-VS60 (the absolute volumes of thyroid spared from various dose levels) remained statistically significant in multivariate analyses. Cutoff points of 45 Gy (Dtmean), 80% (Vt40) and 5 cm3 (VS45Gy) were identified to classify patients as high-risk or low-risk group. Conclusion Thyroid Vt40 highly predicted the risk of hypothyroidism after IMRT for NPC patients. We recommended plan optimization objectives to reduce thyroid Vt40 to 80%. Trial registration: Retrospectively registered.