Managing Typhoon Related Crop Risk at WPC

Risk management of crop related exposures in coastal regions can be enhanced through a program of hazards modeling and real-time forecasting. As one component in the yield distribution of selected crops, typhoon-related hazards are a critical factor. Natural typhoon occurrence rates accentuate the extreme parts of the yield distribution, causing severe and correlated financial disruptions to invested interests. This paper outlines a suite of techniques focused on building a probabilistic understanding of crop risk from tropical cyclones. Several foundational technologies are discussed, including: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of tropical cyclones; statistical consensus forecast models, such as the WeatherPredict Superensemble™; and the application of flood modeling techniques to typhoon landfall scenarios.