Estimating tourism demand: the case of FYROM

The paper underlines the importance of applying forecasting methods in estimation of tourism trends. In this respect, two quantitative methods were used: (1) the method of exponential smoothing, through two of its variants: Double Exponential Smoothing and the Holt-Winters Smoothing; and (2) the Box-Jenkins methodology, through several alternative specifications. The result of the research is a medium-term estimation of foreign tourism demand for destinations in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) by the end of 2014. Despite the fact that all applied methods are not capable of explaining the driving factors behind the results, the estimated values can serve as a base for identifying measures and activities necessary for creating comprehensive tourism policy.
tourismos, Vol. 8 No. 1 (2013)