Biogeomorphic modeling to assess resilience of tidal marsh restoration to sea level rise and sediment supply

There is an increasing demand for creation and restoration of tidal marshes around the world, as they provide highly valued ecosystem services. Yet, tidal marshes are strongly vulnerable to factors such as sea level rise and declining sediment supply. How fast the restored ecosystem develops, how resilient it is to sea level rise, and how this can be steered by restoration design, are key questions that are typically challenging to assess. In this paper, we apply a biogeomorphic model to a planned tidal marsh restoration by dike breaching. Our modeling approach integrates tidal hydrodynamics, sediment transport and vegetation dynamics, accounting for relevant fine-scale flow-vegetation interactions (less than 1 m2) and their impact on vegetation and landform development at the landscape scale (several km2) and on the long term (several decades). Our model performance is positively evaluated against observations of vegetation and geomorphic development in adjacent tidal marshes. Model scenarios demonstrate that the restored tidal marsh can keep pace with realistic rates of sea level rise and that its resilience is more sensitive to the availability of suspended sediments than to the rate of sea level rise. We further demonstrate that restoration design options can steer marsh resilience, as it affects the rates and spatial patterns of biogeomorphic development. By varying the width of two dike breaches, which serve as tidal inlets to the restored marsh, we show that a larger difference in the width of the two inlets leads to more diversity in restored habitats. This study showcases that biogeomorphic modeling can support management choices in restoration design to optimize tidal marsh development towards sustainable restoration goals.