Future lung cancer incidence in Poland and Finland based on forecasts on hypothetical changes in smoking habits

Objective. The aim is to estimate the future lung cancer incidence in Poland and Finland based on forecasts on hypothetical changes in smoking habits. Material and methods. Data on population, lung cancer and smoking prevalence come from known sources. The simulation model utilized for forecasting was based on smoothing the smoking habit – specific risk ratios estimated for males and females in Europe. Results. Depending on the analyzed scenario in 2030 in Poland mortality rates among men would range from 8 to 125/105 and among women from 7 to 47/105; in Finland among men 5 to 60/105 and among women 4 to 22/105. Conclusions. The results obtained clearly indicate that cutting down on the number of smokers translates directly into a considerable reduction of the lung cancer incidence rate.