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Extremes are not normal: a reminder to demographers
- Source :
- Medford, A & Vaupel, J W 2020, ' Extremes are not normal : a reminder to demographers ', Journal of Population Research, vol. 37, pp. 91-106 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-019-09231-y
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2019.
-
Abstract
- Demographers have always held great interest in extremal phenomena. Extreme value distributions are tailor made to model extremes but demographers do not often take advantage of them. We argue that demographers would benefit by using these models more often and present one potential usage: the Extreme Value Distribution as a candidate for modelling the error distribution in time series models. As an example, we use the so called best practice life expectancy. The residuals from the fitted models are tested for Normality. They are also fitted with Gaussian and Generalized Extreme Value distributions and the fit of these two distributions is compared. The results suggest that demographers ought to further explore and take greater advantage of extreme value models.
- Subjects :
- Series (mathematics)
Demographic extremes
media_common.quotation_subject
Gaussian
Extremes
05 social sciences
Model residuals
Residual tests
Maximum life expectancy
Extreme value distributions
symbols.namesake
Distribution (mathematics)
050902 family studies
0502 economics and business
Econometrics
Generalized extreme value distribution
symbols
Life expectancy
050207 economics
0509 other social sciences
Extreme value theory
Normality
Demography
media_common
Mathematics
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 18359469 and 14432447
- Volume :
- 37
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Population Research
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....d019f2c0020be3fcb8c885c80bcdfacf