Preoperative and postoperative prognostic factors of patients with stage II/III lower rectal cancer without neoadjuvant therapy in the clinical trial (JCOG0212)

Background The JCOG0212 trial was a randomized controlled trial comparing mesorectal excision alone to mesorectal excision with lateral lymph node dissection for stage II/III lower rectal cancer patients without clinical lateral lymph node enlargement. This study aimed to identify clinicopathological prognostic factors for relapse-free survival and overall survival of lower rectal cancer in the trial. Methods Prospective data were selected from 663 patients with complete data. Uni and multivariable Cox regression model was applied to evaluate the preoperative and the combined preoperative and postoperative factors, respectively. Preoperative factors included age, sex, performance status, clinical T, clinical N and operative procedures. Postoperative factors included histological grade, pathological T, number of metastatic lymph nodes and number of dissected lymph nodes. No patient received neoadjuvant treatment. Results Regarding preoperative factors, multivariable analysis revealed that performance status 1 (vs. 0: HR 2.079, P = 0.0041) and cT4a (vs. cT2–3: HR 2.721, P = 0.0002) were independent risk factors for relapse-free survival, and those for overall survival were male (vs. female: HR 1.660, P = 0.0228) and cT4a (vs. cT2–3: HR 2.486, P = 0.0473). The only independent preoperative risk factor common for relapse-free survival and overall survival was cT4a. Taking preoperative and postoperative factors together, the number of metastatic lymph nodes was the only independent risk factor common for relapse-free survival and overall survival. Conclusions Clinical stage II/III lower rectal cancer patients with cT4a should be a target of therapeutic development of neoadjuvant therapy. Postoperatively, intensive chemotherapy should be investigated for patients with more metastatic lymph nodes.