The role of ethnic characteristics in the effect of income shocks on African conflict

This paper disentangles the ethnic drivers of the effect of food-related income shocks on African conflict employing geo-localized information. We consider diversity and political ethnic variables and several conflict definitions. We find that differentiating between organized armed-force and non-organized conflict can be more informative than between factor and output conflict. We show evidence that conflict is driven by the opportunity cost and state capacity mechanisms. Furthermore, ethnic cleavages have a large role in the transmission process of income shocks on organized armed-force conflict; whereas their role in non-organized violence is more limited. The sensitivity to ethnic heterogeneity for producer-price and droughts shocks is much larger than for consumer-price changes. Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Projects PGC2018-093542-B-I00 and PID2019-111208GB-I00) is gratefully acknowledged.