Predicting the risk of post-hepatectomy portal hypertension using a digital twin: A clinical proof of concept

Background & Aims Despite improvements in medical and surgical techniques, post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) remains the leading cause of postoperative death. High postoperative portal vein pressure (PPV) and portocaval gradient (PCG), which cannot be predicted by current tools, are the most important determinants of PHLF. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate a digital twin to predict the risk of postoperative portal hypertension (PHT). Methods We prospectively included 47 patients undergoing major hepatectomy. A mathematical (0D) model of the entire blood circulation was assessed and automatically calibrated from patient characteristics. Hepatic flows were obtained from preoperative flow MRI (n = 9), intraoperative flowmetry (n = 16), or estimated from cardiac output (n = 47). Resection was then simulated in these 3 groups and the computed PPV and PCG were compared to intraoperative data. Results Simulated post-hepatectomy pressures did not differ between the 3 groups, comparing well with collected data (no significant differences). In the entire cohort, the correlation between measured and simulated PPV values was good (r = 0.66, no adjustment to intraoperative events) or excellent (r = 0.75) after adjustment, as well as for PCG (respectively r = 0.59 and r = 0.80). The difference between simulated and measured post-hepatectomy PCG was ≤3 mmHg in 96% of cases. Four patients suffered from lethal PHLF for whom the model satisfactorily predicted their postoperative pressures. Conclusions We demonstrated that a 0D model could correctly anticipate postoperative PHT, even using estimated hepatic flow rates as input data. If this major conceptual step is confirmed, this algorithm could change our practice toward more tailor-made procedures, while ensuring satisfactory outcomes. Lay summary Post-hepatectomy portal hypertension is a major cause of liver failure and death, but no tool is available to accurately anticipate this potentially lethal complication for a given patient. Herein, we propose using a mathematical model to predict the portocaval gradient at the end of liver resection. We tested this model on a cohort of 47 patients undergoing major hepatectomy and demonstrated that it could modify current surgical decision-making algorithms.