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The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty
- Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters, Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2015, ⟨10.1002/2015GL065402⟩
- Publication Year :
- 2015
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2015.
-
Abstract
- International audience; The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On April 1, 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two-week-long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw = 8.1 mainshock and a static slip model of the Mw= 7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding non-physical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and up-dip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the mainshock and the Mw = 7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.
- Subjects :
- Seismic gap
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Slow slip
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Slip (materials science)
Bayesian inversion
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
01 natural sciences
Earthquake simulation
Prediction uncertainty
1877 Chile seismic gap
Aftershock
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
[SDU.STU.TE]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Tectonics
Subduction
2014 Iquique earthquake
Geodesy
Foreshock
Geophysics
13. Climate action
Trench
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Episodic tremor and slip
Kinematic source model
Geology
Seismology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00948276 and 19448007
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Geophysical Research Letters, Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2015, ⟨10.1002/2015GL065402⟩
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....cc9d57c9d4a84fc9cac9da00d790944b