Vascular Surgery Workforce: Evaluation and Estimation of Future Demand in the United Kingdom

Vascular disease is a common cause of death and disability in our growing elderly population and the demand for vascular procedures is increasing worldwide. Workforce planning is essential to meet future demand and provide safe vascular services. Our aim was to evaluate the current workforce in the United Kingdom and estimate future demand for vascular surgeons.From November 2020 to January 2021, we surveyed UK vascular surgeons for information on their work patterns. We estimated current vascular surgery (VS) workforce using the National Vascular Registry (NVR) data and population data from the Office for National Statistics. To estimate future demand, we interrogated Hospital Episode Statistic (HES) data using Hospital Admitted Patient Care Activity (HAPCA) and linear trend analysis.NVR data estimate that currently there are 518 consultant VS in the United Kingdom, or 1 per 128,951 population, lower than international comparisons. HAPCA data (2012-2020) suggests VS Finished Consultant Episodes (FCE), admissions, and waiting lists are growing by approximately 2% per year, and we estimate the workforce will need to grow by more than 50% over the next 10 years to meet this demand and Vascular Society of Great Britain and Ireland recommendation.The UK has a shortage of vascular surgeons at a time when vascular activity is increasing. The VS workforce, both VS consultant and vascular surgeons in training numbers need to expand to address the ongoing shortage and maintain a safe level of service.