Alcoholism and Drug Abuse Service Forecasting Models: A Comparative Discussion

Several demand-based models for forecasting alcoholism/drug abuse bed needs have been developed over the past few years. Demand models have inherent problems for predicting future needs because of the unknown relationship between the demand group and the nondemand group. Nonetheless, these models hold promise for the alcoholism/drug abuse service system because of some of the unique characteristics of that system. Three models for forecasting alcoholism bed need and one for forecasting drug abuse bed need are discussed; the strengths and weaknesses of each are presented. Projections for the same geographic area are compared. Criteria for selecting one model over another are also recommended.