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The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states
- Source :
- European Journal of Epidemiology
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021.
-
Abstract
- We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00766-0.
- Subjects :
- medicine.medical_specialty
Asia
Linear mixed models
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Epidemiology
Physical Distancing
030231 tropical medicine
Population
Psychological intervention
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Pandemic
medicine
Humans
ddc:610
Longitudinal Studies
030212 general & internal medicine
education
Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
Pandemics
education.field_of_study
Australasia
SARS-CoV-2
business.industry
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Public health
Social distance
Member states
Masks
COVID-19
Longitudinal analysis
Generalized linear mixed models
Europe
North America
Quarantine
OECD
610 Medizin und Gesundheit
business
Demography
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15737284 and 03932990
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- European Journal of Epidemiology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....c6c93ebcf274141d460b568a0c3525b9