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The probability of conditionals: A review
- Source :
- López-Astorga, M, Ragni, M & Johnson-Laird, P N 2022, ' The probability of conditionals : A review ', Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 1-20 . https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-021-01938-5, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021.
-
Abstract
- A major hypothesis about conditionals is the Equation in which the probability of a conditional equals the corresponding conditional probability: p(if A then C) = p(C|A). Probabilistic theories often treat it as axiomatic, whereas it follows from the meanings of conditionals in the theory of mental models. In this theory, intuitive models (system 1) do not represent what is false, and so produce errors in estimates of p(if A then C), yielding instead p(A & C). Deliberative models (system 2) are normative, and yield the proportion of cases of A in which C holds, i.e., the Equation. Intuitive estimates of the probability of a conditional about unique events: If covid-19 disappears in the USA, then Biden will run for a second term, together with those of each of its clauses, are liable to yield joint probability distributions that sum to over 100%. The error, which is inconsistent with the probability calculus, is massive when participants estimate the joint probabilities of conditionals with each of the different possibilities to which they refer. This result and others under review corroborate the model theory. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.3758/s13423-021-01938-5.
- Subjects :
- Model theory
Logic
Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
Models, Psychological
050105 experimental psychology
Theoretical/Review
Mental models
Judgment
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
Joint probability distribution
Subadditivity
Developmental and Educational Psychology
Humans
0501 psychology and cognitive sciences
Problem Solving
Axiom
Conditional probabilities
Probability
Corresponding conditional
Discrete mathematics
Probabilities
SARS-CoV-2
05 social sciences
Probabilistic logic
COVID-19
Conditional probability
Term (logic)
The Equation
Conditionals
Psychology
030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15315320 and 10699384
- Volume :
- 29
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....c5e4ee307f09e2b8677446690643a1ed