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Spatial modeling of individual-level infectious disease transmission: Tuberculosis data in Manitoba, Canada
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Wiley, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Geographically dependent individual level models (GD-ILMs) are a class of statistical models that can be used to study the spread of infectious disease through a population in discrete-time in which covariates can be measured both at individual and area levels. The typical ILMs to illustrate spatial data are based on the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals. A key feature of GD-ILMs is that they take into account the spatial location of the individuals in addition to the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals. As a motivation of this article, we consider tuberculosis (TB) data which is an infectious disease which can be transmitted through individuals. It is also known that certain areas/demographics/communities have higher prevalent of TB (see Section 4 for more details). It is also of interest of policy makers to identify those areas with higher infectivity rate of TB for possible preventions. Therefore, we need to analyze this data properly to address those concerns. In this article, the expectation conditional maximization algorithm is proposed for estimating the parameters of GD-ILMs to be able to predict the areas with the highest average infectivity rates of TB. We also evaluate the performance of our proposed approach through some simulations. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed method provides reliable estimates of parameters which confirms accuracy of the infectivity rates.
- Subjects :
- Statistics and Probability
Canada
Tuberculosis
Epidemiology
Statistics & Probability
Population
conditional autoregressive model
01 natural sciences
Communicable Diseases
1117 Public Health and Health Services
010104 statistics & probability
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Statistics
Covariate
medicine
Humans
030212 general & internal medicine
0101 mathematics
susceptible-infected-removed model
education
Spatial analysis
expectation conditional maximization algorithm
individual-level models
education.field_of_study
Models, Statistical
0104 Statistics
Statistical model
Manitoba
Maximization
medicine.disease
Individual level
3. Good health
Geography
Infectious disease (medical specialty)
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....c4e6f0f02479d8a2ac2702db72f610e2