Unpacking the 'Black Box' of Race–Ethnic Variation in Fertility

Race–ethnic differences in a range of childbearing behaviors are long standing and well documented, and these differences are attenuated, but not eliminated, when accounting for socioeconomic disparities. The residual differences are often attributed to vague and untested variation across race–ethnic groups in knowledge, attitudes, psychological attributes, normative beliefs, and social context. We use the longitudinal Toledo Adolescent Relationship Study (TARS), which contains a rich set of such factors measured in early adolescence, to assess whether they contribute to race–ethnic differences in having a birth among men and women ages 17–24 (n = 1,042). Specifically, we test whether individual attitudes, religiosity, and academic behaviors; knowledge and behaviors regarding sex and dating; peer normative context; and parental communication about sex account for variation in the risk of an early birth. We find that socioeconomic factors attenuate but do not reduce differences between black, Hispanic, and white respondents. Including adolescent academic performance and early entry into sex reduces the black–white difference in the odds of early fertility to non-significance; however, beyond socioeconomic status, none of the broad range of factors further attenuate Hispanic–white differences, which remain large and statistically significant.