Simple score to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis after pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy

Ching-Chih Hu,1,2 Cheng-Hao Weng,2,3 Liang-Che Chang,4 Chih-Lang Lin,1,2 Yen-Ting Chen,1 Ching-Fang Hu,5 Man-Chin Hua,2,6 Li-Wei Chen,1 Rong-Nan Chien2,7 1Department of Hepatogastroenterology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan; 2College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Linkou, Taiwan; 3Department of Nephrology and Poison Center, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou, Taiwan; 4Department of Pathology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan; 5Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan; 6Department of Pediatrics, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan; 7Department of Hepatogastroenterology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou, Taiwan Purpose: Eradication of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) after interferon-based therapy and its association with the reduction of risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HCV-infected patients with advanced fibrosis is controversial. The study is aimed to develop a simple scoring model for HCC prediction among advanced fibrotic chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after pegylated interferon (pegIFN) and ribavirin (RBV) therapy. Patients and methods: We enrolled 271 biopsy-proven CHC patients with advanced fibrosis between 2003 and 2016, and divided them into non-HCC (n=211) and HCC (n=60) groups. The median observation duration was 6.0 years (range: 0.9–12.6 years). Results: The HCC prevalence after pegIFN and RBV therapy in CHC patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) and without SVR was 14.7% and 32.2%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression showed age ≥59.5 years old at initiation of therapy (HR: 2.542, 95% CI: 1.390–4.650, P=0.002), pretreatment total bilirubin ≥1.1 mg/dL (HR: 2.630, 95% CI: 1.420–4.871, P=0.002), pretreatment platelet counts