Neural Population Dynamics Underlying Expected Value Computation

Computation of expected values (i.e., probability × magnitude) seems to be a dynamic integrative process performed by the brain for efficient economic behavior. However, neural dynamics underlying this computation is largely unknown. Using lottery tasks in monkeys (Macaca mulatta, male;Macaca fuscata, female), we examined (1) whether four core reward-related brain regions detect and integrate probability and magnitude cued by numerical symbols and (2) whether these brain regions have distinct dynamics in the integrative process. Extraction of the mechanistic structure of neural population signals demonstrated that expected value signals simultaneously arose in the central orbitofrontal cortex (cOFC; medial part of area 13) and ventral striatum (VS). Moreover, these signals were incredibly stable compared with weak and/or fluctuating signals in the dorsal striatum and medial OFC. Temporal dynamics of these stable expected value signals were unambiguously distinct: sharp and gradual signal evolutions in the cOFC and VS, respectively. These intimate dynamics suggest that the cOFC and VS compute the expected values with unique time constants, as distinct, partially overlapping processes.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTOur results differ from those of earlier studies suggesting that many reward-related regions in the brain signal probability and/or magnitude and provide a mechanistic structure for expected value computation employed in multiple neural populations. A central part of the orbitofrontal cortex (cOFC) and ventral striatum (VS) can simultaneously detect and integrate probability and magnitude into an expected value. Our empirical study on these neural population dynamics raises a possibility that the cOFC and VS cooperate on this computation with unique time constants as distinct, partially overlapping processes.