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War and the Reelection Motive: Examining the Effect of Term Limits
- Source :
- Journal of Conflict Resolution
- Publication Year :
- 2013
- Publisher :
- USA, 2013.
-
Abstract
- This article investigates the relationship between term limits and international conflict. Theories of political survival and diversionary war both imply term limits should play a role in international relations, whereas “permanent referendum theory,” largely motivated by work in American politics, suggests otherwise. Drawing on these theories, we formulate and test competing hypotheses regarding term limits and international crises. Using dyadic militarized interstate disputes data and information on forty-eight democracies with term limits, we uncover strong evidence to support the claim that leaders reaching final terms in office are more likely to initiate conflict than those still subject to reelection. Moreover, we find that the likelihood of conflict initiation is significantly higher during times of recession, but only in the absence of binding term limits. While binding electoral terms and economic downturns are both independently associated with increased levels of conflict initiation, in concert their conditional effects actually counteract each other.
- Subjects :
- International conflict
Sociology and Political Science
Politikwissenschaft
Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik
domestic policy
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Präsidentschaftswahl
politische Führung
Macht
Public administration
political leadership
power
Politics
securing of power
Economics
Positive economics
Machtsicherung
internationale Beziehungen
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Staatsoberhaupt
Political science
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
president
empirisch
head of state
international relations
Innenpolitik
internationaler Konflikt
Präsident
General Business, Management and Accounting
term limits
diversionary war
Term (time)
presidential election
Political Science and International Relations
ddc:320
international conflict
empirical
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Conflict Resolution
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....baad68717213132e88aef656264ba93b