The Geography of Residential Turnover in Twenty-seven Large US Metropolitan Housing Markets, 1985-95

Previous research on variations in mobility rates across metropolitan areas, documented the link between immigration and local mobility, and the way in which local mobility creates 'hot' and 'cold' housing markets. The research in this paper confirms and extends those analyses by examining the interplay between the relocation process and the structure of metropolitan housing markets. The results show that more than three-quarters of the turnover is generated by renters and most of this by households under 35 years of age. It also shows that variations in mobility rates can be predicted by variations in new construction, though it is clear that ultimately it is the underlying population growth which is the critical variable. House prices also vary across metropolitan areas and are influenced by city size, but the major determinants of variation in house prices are household income (a measure of upward pressure on prices) and the tenure structure of the local market. The results show that turnover per se is at least as important as price in creating opportunities for tenure change and residential relocation.