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Climate Change Projections of Terrestrial Primary Productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan Forests
- Source :
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol 12, Pp 857-870 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] caused by anthropogenic activities has triggered a requirement to predict the future impact of [CO2] on forests. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region comprises a vast territory including forests, grasslands, farmlands and wetland ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of climate change and land-use change on forest carbon fluxes and vegetation productivity are assessed for HKH using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of three climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) database. The modelled estimates of vegetation carbon (VegC) and terrestrial primary productivity were compared with observation-based estimates. Furthermore, we also explored the net biome productivity (NBP) and its components over HKH for the period 1851–2100 under the future climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. A reduced modelled NBP (reduced C sink) is observed from 1986–2015 primarily due to land-use change. However, an increase in NBP is predicted under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The findings of the study have important implications for the management of the HKH region, in addition to informing strategic decision making and land-use planning, and clarifying policy concerns.
- Subjects :
- QE1-996.5
Coupled model intercomparison project
Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Science
Biome
Climate change
Geology
QE500-639.5
Wetland
Vegetation
010501 environmental sciences
01 natural sciences
Dynamic and structural geology
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Environmental science
Climate model
Ecosystem
Physical geography
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 21904987
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol 12, Pp 857-870 (2021)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....b919aafded8bff6a7e59de8f76c5ad96