Can lake sensitivity to desiccation be predicted from lake geometry?

Summary Declining lake levels (Aral Sea syndrome) can be caused by changes in climate, increased water use or changed regulation patterns. This paper introduces a novel lake geometry index (LGI) to quantify lake hydrological characteristics. The index was developed using a large representative dataset of lake hypsographic characteristics from 152 lakes and man-made reservoirs. Using the LGI index, lakes can be classified into five groups: groups 1–4 when LGI is 0.5–2.5, 2.5–4.5, 4.5–6.5 and 6.5–8.5, respectively, and group 5 when LGI is >8.5. Naturally shallow and vast lakes and wetlands fall into the first group and deep man-made reservoirs in narrow valleys are in group 5. The response of three different lake systems (LGI 0.75, 2.75 and 6.5) to different water flow scenarios was then simulated using the water balance equation. From this, the index ‘potential lake area’ (A pot ) was developed to show lake responses to changed hydro-climatological conditions. A pot and LGI can be used to classify lakes into open or closed systems. Simulations showed that lakes with low LGI have a shorter response time to flow and climate changes. As a result, the impact of water balance restoration is faster for lakes with low LGI than for lakes with high LGI. The latter are also more vulnerable to climate variation and change.