Modeling and analyzing traffic safety perceptions: An application to the speed limit reduction pilot project in Edmonton, Alberta

To address the speeding problem in residential areas, the City of Edmonton initiated a pilot project to reduce the posted speed limit from 50 km/h to 40 km/h within six residential communities. This paper investigates the community perceptions of traffic safety within the six pilot communities in two phases: prior to project initiation (pre-pilot) and following the end of the project (post-pilot). This objective was accomplished by analyzing the results of two random dialing telephone surveys comprising 300 residents each. A preliminary analysis showed compatible demographic configurations for the two samples and confirmed that the residents were aware of both the posted speed limits and the adopted speed management controls. For the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), a two-group (pre-pilot and post-pilot) three-factor model was used to assess the residents’ perceptions of the speeding behavior (Speeding), their concerns about traffic safety issues (Concerns), and their perceptions of traffic safety (Safety). Comparing the CFA results of the post-pilot survey versus those of the pre-pilot survey, it was evident that there was a significant decrease in Speeding and Concerns accompanied by a significant increase in Safety. A structural equations model (SEM) was also fitted to the data in order to assess the impact of Speeding and Concerns on Safety. The results showed that Concerns increase significantly with Speeding, and that both factors have significant negative impacts on Safety. However, while the impact of Concerns on Safety was direct, that of Speeding on Safety was largely indirect (i.e., mediated through Concerns). Overall, the multivariate analysis has demonstrated that the pilot project was successful in improving the residents’ perceptions of traffic safety in their community.