First month prednisone dose predicts prednisone burden during the following 11 months: an observational study from the RELES cohort

Aim: To study the influence of prednisone dose during the first month after systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) diagnosis (prednisone-1) on glucocorticoid burden during the subsequent 11 months (prednisone-2-12). Methods: 223 patients from the Registro Espanol de Lupus Eritematoso Sisternico inception cohort were studied. The cumulative dose of prednisone-1 and prednisone-2-12 were calculated and recoded into a four-level categorical variable: no prednisone, low dose (up to 7.5 mg/day), medium dose (up to 30 mg/day) and high dose (over 30 mg/day). The association between the cumulative prednisone-1 and prednisone-2-12 doses was tested. We analysed whether the four level prednisone-1 categorical variable was an independent predictor of an average dose >7.5 mg/day of prednisone-2-12. Adjusting variables included age, immunosuppressives, antimalarials, methyl-prednisolone pulses, lupus nephritis and baseline SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI). Results: Within the first month, 113 patients (51%) did not receive any prednisone, 24 patients (11%) received average low doses, 46 patients (21%) received medium doses and 40 patients (18%) received high doses. There was a strong association between prednisone-1 and prednisone-2-12 dose categories (p7.5 mg/day, while patients receiving low dose prednisone-1 were not (adjusted OR 1.4, 95% CI 0. 0.38 to 5.2). If the analysis was restricted to the 158 patients with a baseline SLEDAI of >= 6, the model did not change. Conclusion: The dose of prednisone during the first month after the diagnosis of SLE is an independent predictor of prednisone burden during the following 11 months.
This study was supported by the Spanish Society of Internal Medicine.