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Recent TB transmission, clustering and predictors of large clusters in London, 2010–2012: results from first 3 years of universal MIRU-VNTR strain typing
- Source :
- Thorax
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- BMJ, 2016.
-
Abstract
- Background The incidence of TB has doubled in the last 20 years in London. A better understanding of risk groups for recent transmission is required to effectively target interventions. We investigated the molecular epidemiological characteristics of TB cases to estimate the proportion of cases due to recent transmission, and identify predictors for belonging to a cluster. Methods The study population included all culture-positive TB cases in London residents, notified between January 2010 and December 2012, strain typed using 24-loci multiple interspersed repetitive units-variable number tandem repeats. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the risk factors for clustering using sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of cases and for cluster size based on the characteristics of the first two cases. Results There were 10 147 cases of which 5728 (57%) were culture confirmed and 4790 isolates (84%) were typed. 2194 (46%) were clustered in 570 clusters, and the estimated proportion attributable to recent transmission was 34%. Clustered cases were more likely to be UK born, have pulmonary TB, a previous diagnosis, a history of substance abuse or alcohol abuse and imprisonment, be of white, Indian, black-African or Caribbean ethnicity. The time between notification of the first two cases was more likely to be
- Subjects :
- Adult
Male
0301 basic medicine
Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
medicine.medical_specialty
Pediatrics
Tuberculosis
Genotype
030106 microbiology
Population
Alcohol abuse
Logistic regression
Sensitivity and Specificity
law.invention
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Predictive Value of Tests
Risk Factors
law
London
Epidemiology
Cluster Analysis
Humans
Medicine
Clinical Epidemiology
030212 general & internal medicine
education
Tuberculosis, Pulmonary
Retrospective Studies
education.field_of_study
business.industry
Incidence
Incidence (epidemiology)
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
medicine.disease
Transmission (mechanics)
Population study
Female
business
Demography
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14683296 and 00406376
- Volume :
- 71
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Thorax
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....ae09373e9720ec5e5d90cfabd7220d54