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The contribution of solar brightening to the US maize yield trend
- Source :
- Nature Climate Change. 7:275-278
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2017.
-
Abstract
- Predictions of crop yield under future climate change are predicated on historical yield trends(1–3), hence it is important to identify the contributors to historical yield gains and their potential for continued increase. The large gains in maize yield in the US Corn Belt have been attributed to agricultural technologies(4), ignoring the potential contribution of solar brightening (decadal-scale increases in incident solar radiation) reported for much of the globe since the mid-1980s. In this study, using a novel biophysical/empirical approach, we show that solar brightening contributed approximately 27% of the US Corn Belt yield trend from 1984 to 2013. Accumulated solar brightening during the post-flowering phase of development of maize increased during the past 3 decades, causing the yield increase that previously had been attributed to agricultural technology. Several factors are believed to cause solar brightening, but their relative importance and future outlook are unknown(5–9), making prediction of continued solar brightening and its future contribution to yield gain uncertain. Consequently, results of this study call into question the implicit use of historical yield trends in predicting yields under future climate change scenarios.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
Ecophysiology
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
business.industry
Phenology
Yield (finance)
Crop yield
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
01 natural sciences
Article
Agronomy
Agriculture
Environmental science
business
Agroecology
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
010606 plant biology & botany
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 17586798 and 1758678X
- Volume :
- 7
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Nature Climate Change
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....adbb1f125caaac7fea363568d43a5011