Developing an operational reference framework for fisheries management on the basis of a two-dimensional index of ecosystem impact

A composite quantitative index for the percentage of primary production required to sustain fisheries and the average trophic level of catch (%PPR–TLc) was employed to develop ecosystem-based reference functions suitable for fisheries management. Established ecosystem models, characterized by pairs of %PPR–TLc, were classified as either sustainably exploited or ecosystem overfished, on the basis of the results of factorial correspondence analysis applied to selected ecological indices, and on information from various sources. Canonical discriminant analysis of these pairs was applied to establish the discriminant function to separate the two exploitation classes. Next, reference functions related to different probabilities of ecosystem overfishing were developed to obtain an operational framework for ecosystem-based fisheries management. Values of ecosystem-based maximum sustainable catches associated with different probabilities of belonging to a sustainable situation were calculated. Overall, results show that most current fishing scenarios entail high risks of ecosystem overfishing.