Trajectories of dynamic risk factors during forensic treatment

In this study, growth trajectories (from admission until unconditional release) of crime-related dynamic risk factors were investigated in a sample of Dutch forensic patients ( N = 317), using latent growth curve modeling. After testing the unconditional model, three predictors were added: first-time offender versus recidivist, age, and treatment duration. Postanalyses were chi-square difference tests, t tests, and analyses of variance (ANOVAs) to assess differences in trajectories. Overall, on scale level, a decrease of risk factors over time was found. The predictors showed no significant slope differences although age and treatment duration differed significantly at some time points. The oldest age group performed worse, especially at later time points. Treatment duration effects were found at the second time point. Our results that forensic patients show a decrease in crime-related risk factors may indicate that treatment is effective. This study also found differences in growth rates, indicating the effect of individual differences