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Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
- Source :
- Nonlinear Dynamics
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely.
- Subjects :
- 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Aerospace Engineering
Ocean Engineering
New infection
01 natural sciences
law.invention
law
Lockdown
0103 physical sciences
Diagnostic technology
Development economics
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
China
010301 acoustics
Original Paper
Government
Applied Mathematics
Mechanical Engineering
COVID-19
Transmission dynamics
Geography
Transmission (mechanics)
Control and Systems Engineering
Scale (social sciences)
Medical resources
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 1573269X and 0924090X
- Volume :
- 101
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Nonlinear Dynamics
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....a93bb39e1537509caf9104bd4ba86569