Mixture modeling for identifying subtypes in disease course mapping

International audience; Disease modeling techniques summarize the possible trajectories of progression from multimodal and longitudinal data. These techniques often assume that individuals form a homogeneous cluster, thus ignoring possible disease subtypes within the population. We extend a non-linear mixed-effect model used for disease course mapping with a mixture framework. We jointly estimate model parameters and subtypes with a tempered version of a stochastic approximation of the Expectation Maximisation algorithm. We show that our model recovers the ground truth parameters from synthetic data, in contrast to the naive solution consisting in post hoc clustering of individual parameters from a one-class model. Applications to Alzheimer's disease data allows the unsupervised identification of disease subtypes associated with distinct relationship between cognitive decline and progression of imaging and biological biomarkers.